Is Bitcoin Dead?

With the FTX debacle, all the Bitcoin haters, like Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway) and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase Bank) have all seized the moment and declared Bitcoin a fraud, a scam, and “AHA” that they were right to trash it in the first place.  Bear in mind that they are traditional investors, and Bitcoin, the “new kid on the block”, is not traditional.

The intelligent investor
The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, from Amazon

Bitcoin is still the “wild frontier” of modern finance, and is going through some growing pains as Bad Actors like the founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, are being extradited to the US to answer to the Congress and the SEC.

I put to you that the problem here is not Bitcoin, but the people who will take advantage of investors in their crypto-currency exchanges, just like there are criminal bankers and fund managers.  The blockchain will have all of the transaction records, as it is designed, but the bad actors are using the unregulated ability to hide the non-blockchain transfer of assets from Crypto currencies to (Lord knows where) offshore accounts, donations to political parties to curry legislative favor, and more.

The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web
The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web

Clearly there is a need to regulate the behavior of crypto currency exchange managers, large investors, HODL’ers, and others who use international transfers and an egregious lack of transparency to hide their thievery and illegitimate profiteering.  History shows us that the next Bernie Madoff is coming, and can bilk you with Bitcoin or conventional stocks and bonds.

While US investors may have some recourse when criminal activity is involved, this problem spans the world as Bitcoin and related Crypto currencies can be converted into almost any fiat currency.  And then can be folded into conventional transactions to evade detection.

This is a dark time for Bitcoin and it’s advocates, who once extoled the low-fee transfer and blockchain-secure ledger that was the compelling reason to move assets into Bitcoin.

Any company planning large scale Blockchain projects may reconsider, until there is a governing body and real penalties for criminal behavior.  Not to mention some transparency and adherence to GAAP.  (Generally accepted accounting principles).

Personally, I don’t think Bitcoin is “going away” or “dead” yet – it just has not matured to the point where regulators know how to manage it’s risks and proponents; both legitimate and criminal.

Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency
Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency, from Amazon

 

 

Bitcoin and the Dead Cat Bounce

The “Dead Cat Bounce”

“A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend. The name “dead cat bounce” is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough..” – Investopedia

The powers that rule the financial markets, The FED, the SEC, the World Bank, etc., all have one thing in common – they view Bitcoin as “the enemy” (The enemy of the Banks).  While volatility rages in the Bitcoin price, any downturn – or upturn is regarded as proof that Bitcoin is a sham or fraud, like the “Dead Cat Bounce”.

Unfortunately for the large financial institutions, Bitcoin is far from dead.  In fact, it is making a recovery from recent lows.  Is the cat bouncing?  You Bet it is.  That sucker is going up and down like a yoyo.  Count on it.

History teaches us that it takes 20 years to convert a financial fad into a trend, and a trend into an institution.  Bitcoin started in 2009, and is a nine-year overnight success. The banks deride Bitcoin, but almost all of them are using the Blockchain technology (the underlying bitcoin technology) for developing low cost and stable transactions.  With apologies to the Bard, “Methinks the banks protest too much”.

While the cat is bouncing, you can 
1) Enjoy the show
2) Keep calm and HODL on
3) Buy on what looks like it may be a “low”, and sell some on what looks like a “high”  (Note: it is generally agreed that no one can “time” the market, but with this much volatility, moving 20% in the course of a week, it could be a worthwhile risk – but don’t “bet the Farm” – know how much you can afford to lose, and keep Maalox handy).

Enjoy the show, Hold your coin and enjoy the highs, while avoiding despair when the price plunges and the Fat Cats project the “End of Bitcoin”.

Bitcoin Obituaries – Bitcoin has died 253 times
Best of luck to you, and may your Bitcoin portfolio go TO THE MOON!