Is Bitcoin Dead?

With the FTX debacle, all the Bitcoin haters, like Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway) and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase Bank) have all seized the moment and declared Bitcoin a fraud, a scam, and “AHA” that they were right to trash it in the first place.  Bear in mind that they are traditional investors, and Bitcoin, the “new kid on the block”, is not traditional.

The intelligent investor
The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, from Amazon

Bitcoin is still the “wild frontier” of modern finance, and is going through some growing pains as Bad Actors like the founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, are being extradited to the US to answer to the Congress and the SEC.

I put to you that the problem here is not Bitcoin, but the people who will take advantage of investors in their crypto-currency exchanges, just like there are criminal bankers and fund managers.  The blockchain will have all of the transaction records, as it is designed, but the bad actors are using the unregulated ability to hide the non-blockchain transfer of assets from Crypto currencies to (Lord knows where) offshore accounts, donations to political parties to curry legislative favor, and more.

The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web
The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web

Clearly there is a need to regulate the behavior of crypto currency exchange managers, large investors, HODL’ers, and others who use international transfers and an egregious lack of transparency to hide their thievery and illegitimate profiteering.  History shows us that the next Bernie Madoff is coming, and can bilk you with Bitcoin or conventional stocks and bonds.

While US investors may have some recourse when criminal activity is involved, this problem spans the world as Bitcoin and related Crypto currencies can be converted into almost any fiat currency.  And then can be folded into conventional transactions to evade detection.

This is a dark time for Bitcoin and it’s advocates, who once extoled the low-fee transfer and blockchain-secure ledger that was the compelling reason to move assets into Bitcoin.

Any company planning large scale Blockchain projects may reconsider, until there is a governing body and real penalties for criminal behavior.  Not to mention some transparency and adherence to GAAP.  (Generally accepted accounting principles).

Personally, I don’t think Bitcoin is “going away” or “dead” yet – it just has not matured to the point where regulators know how to manage it’s risks and proponents; both legitimate and criminal.

Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency
Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency, from Amazon

 

 

Bitcoin and the Dead Cat Bounce

The “Dead Cat Bounce”

“A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend. The name “dead cat bounce” is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough..” – Investopedia

The powers that rule the financial markets, The FED, the SEC, the World Bank, etc., all have one thing in common – they view Bitcoin as “the enemy” (The enemy of the Banks).  While volatility rages in the Bitcoin price, any downturn – or upturn is regarded as proof that Bitcoin is a sham or fraud, like the “Dead Cat Bounce”.

Unfortunately for the large financial institutions, Bitcoin is far from dead.  In fact, it is making a recovery from recent lows.  Is the cat bouncing?  You Bet it is.  That sucker is going up and down like a yoyo.  Count on it.

History teaches us that it takes 20 years to convert a financial fad into a trend, and a trend into an institution.  Bitcoin started in 2009, and is a nine-year overnight success. The banks deride Bitcoin, but almost all of them are using the Blockchain technology (the underlying bitcoin technology) for developing low cost and stable transactions.  With apologies to the Bard, “Methinks the banks protest too much”.

While the cat is bouncing, you can 
1) Enjoy the show
2) Keep calm and HODL on
3) Buy on what looks like it may be a “low”, and sell some on what looks like a “high”  (Note: it is generally agreed that no one can “time” the market, but with this much volatility, moving 20% in the course of a week, it could be a worthwhile risk – but don’t “bet the Farm” – know how much you can afford to lose, and keep Maalox handy).

Enjoy the show, Hold your coin and enjoy the highs, while avoiding despair when the price plunges and the Fat Cats project the “End of Bitcoin”.

Bitcoin Obituaries – Bitcoin has died 253 times
Best of luck to you, and may your Bitcoin portfolio go TO THE MOON!

 

It’s the Dip, Time to buy more Bitcoin? Or is Bitcoin Dead?

Bitcoin Prices dropped again this week.  There are lots of reasons for this, as I will outline, and some things you can do.
 
 

The war on Bitcoin is moving forward.  

Bitcoin continues to be volatile, and is traded 24/7 on international markets.

The pundits and writers are looking deeply into the situation, pointing to what makes bitcoin a volatile commodity.  https://lifehacker.com/why-bitcoin-s-price-is-so-volatile-1822143846

Some are decrying the death of Bitcoin!

Bitcoin is Dead (Again!) – Buy Bitcoin Worldwide
“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” – Apologies to Mark Twain

But Bitcoin is NOT dead.  It is still used for purchases, transferring money between people (and across borders), and enabling commerce where the fiat currency is hyperinflated or devalued.  The Electronic ledger called the blockchain is being researched as a model for financial institutions to reconcile their monetary transfers, saving millions in fees. Look into What Is Bitcoin and What Can I Do With It? – by Lifehacker.

Books are appearing en masse to guide us on out Bitcoin journey, like Bitcoin: Mastering Bitcoin For Beginners: How You Can Make Insane Money Investing and Trading in Bitcoin (Bitcoin Mining, Bitcoin trading, Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, Wallet & Business)

So, what are we to do? 

Sit Tight – Sell it all (or part) – Buy more?

Sit Tight

Do nothing.  Take the long view, squash your emotion and fear, Stand back and watch, as the price fluctuates. This is what The Hodler’s do, keeping out of the day-trading madness, and keeping their Bitcoin long term.  Thee is an argument that points to Bitcoin prices going very high, possibly even $100k or more per BTC.  Keep in mind, there is a limited supply (21 million) Bitcoins that can be mined, and that is it.  This is the Long-Term view.  Bitcoin has been around nine years, and it most likely has many more to go, lets “Let it Ride”.  (Note: I may buy and sell, but I am keeping some Bitcoin, as I have a long view of Bitcoin).

SELL!

Sell it all, and be happy you got out before it “Really Tanked” (Unless it goes up, in which case you cry in your beer).  If this makes sense to you, consider selling your Bitcoin in parts, at levels you set.  This preserves your profit, and puts you in a cash position to buy more Bitcoin at what you think the bottom might be.

Buy More?

When the price drops, Bitcoin is cheap compared to buying at the top price. The risk is that you may be buying it all the way down to the “bottom” (which is an unknown price level that defies prediction, even with those claiming clairvoyant power).  FYI – Good luck predicting the next “Top” too.  Lots of people did not sell when Bitcoin hit $19,000 per BTC.

There you have it, based on my perception, these are the options we are presented with when Bitcoin prices take a nosedive.

Let’s be clear about something: there is no such thing as a meaningful Bitcoin price prediction. It just isn’t possible with the current structure. – Jeremy Arnold, Internal consultant. Past analyst/co-founder, on Quora (article presented on Forbes Website)

Best of luck to you, and may your portfolio go TO THE MOON!
Disclaimer: This answer is offered as opinion and is not a recommendation on investing. Please consult knowledgeable advisors and professionals you trust when seeking investment advice. I currently own BTCS stock.
 Don't Tread On My Bitcoin BTC Meme Gadsden Embroidered Hook and Loop Patch