Is Bitcoin Dead?

With the FTX debacle, all the Bitcoin haters, like Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway) and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase Bank) have all seized the moment and declared Bitcoin a fraud, a scam, and “AHA” that they were right to trash it in the first place.  Bear in mind that they are traditional investors, and Bitcoin, the “new kid on the block”, is not traditional.

The intelligent investor
The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, from Amazon

Bitcoin is still the “wild frontier” of modern finance, and is going through some growing pains as Bad Actors like the founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, are being extradited to the US to answer to the Congress and the SEC.

I put to you that the problem here is not Bitcoin, but the people who will take advantage of investors in their crypto-currency exchanges, just like there are criminal bankers and fund managers.  The blockchain will have all of the transaction records, as it is designed, but the bad actors are using the unregulated ability to hide the non-blockchain transfer of assets from Crypto currencies to (Lord knows where) offshore accounts, donations to political parties to curry legislative favor, and more.

The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web
The Dark Side of Bitcoin: From the mechanisms of the Crypto-Currency to its criminal employment in the Dark Web

Clearly there is a need to regulate the behavior of crypto currency exchange managers, large investors, HODL’ers, and others who use international transfers and an egregious lack of transparency to hide their thievery and illegitimate profiteering.  History shows us that the next Bernie Madoff is coming, and can bilk you with Bitcoin or conventional stocks and bonds.

While US investors may have some recourse when criminal activity is involved, this problem spans the world as Bitcoin and related Crypto currencies can be converted into almost any fiat currency.  And then can be folded into conventional transactions to evade detection.

This is a dark time for Bitcoin and it’s advocates, who once extoled the low-fee transfer and blockchain-secure ledger that was the compelling reason to move assets into Bitcoin.

Any company planning large scale Blockchain projects may reconsider, until there is a governing body and real penalties for criminal behavior.  Not to mention some transparency and adherence to GAAP.  (Generally accepted accounting principles).

Personally, I don’t think Bitcoin is “going away” or “dead” yet – it just has not matured to the point where regulators know how to manage it’s risks and proponents; both legitimate and criminal.

Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency
Beyond Blockchain: The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency, from Amazon

 

 

Nervous about Bitcoin trending down?

If you are long on Bitcoin, Hodling vs. trading, then buying at the current prices (hovering around 11k USD per BTC), is smart.

bitcoins-millionaire-full-guide

I have some cash, and definitely long on Bitcoin, so I will be buying more.  Not all at once, in case it drops more. I want free cash available to buy more.

There is some fear that regulation is coming, and Google and Facebook are restricting Cryptocurrency ads, but Bitcoin is still viable and useful as a peer to peer trading mechanism.

In the US, we have a strong Fiat currency, the dollar.  (perhaps you have heard of it?).  Bitcoin shines when the Fiat, or local, currency is not strong, and fees and bank charges are large.  Think Venezuela, Argentina, South Korea.  Bitcoin activity in these countries is large, and growing.  Those governments can just print more fiat currency (which makes for rampant inflation) making Bitcoin a viable option for payments and moving money around.  (This happened in India, where their fiat currency was briefly worthless).

 

How Money Got Free: Bitcoin and the Fight for the Future of Finance
There is also a finite limit to the number of Bitcoins in circulation; 21 Million.  No government or “Bitcoin regulator” can just create more – like the governments do with paper currencies – it is fixed and will allow the price to rise once all 21 million are created through Bitcoin mining.

 

This means that 80 percent of all bitcoins that will be in existence have already been mined. According to estimates, bitcoin will reach its final coin figure sometime in 2140.Jan 15, 2018

 

Only 20 Percent Of Total Bitcoins Remain To Be Mined | Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/news/only-20-percent-total-bitcoins-remain-be-mined/
As I see it, there is a lot of activity in Bitcoin going  on, and volatility, mining, facebook bans, etc., will all have an effect – but not kill off Bitcoin.  You can see the current stats on how many times Bitcoin has been declared “Dead” on 99bitcoins.  (spoiler alert – 273 times as of this writing)
 
Hodl on, and (if you feel like I do) Go long on Bitcoin!
To the Moon!
 
Thank you for reading my blog, and feel free to share!  Best of luck with Bitcoin and all your investments!